CUTS Blog on Developmental Issues

For years one of the standard excuses offered for the economic stagnation in Sub-Saharan Africa was that development projects got waylaid by malaria and AIDS epidemics. The good news is that much of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has experienced growth in the very recent past. Out of the 47 countries considered by the World Bank as part of SSA only 10 did not record positive average annual growth rates of per capita GDP in 1995-2005.

Was it malaria or AIDS that held these ten countries - Burundi, Côte d’Ivoire, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Eritrea, Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Niger and Zimbabwe - back during this period?. The correct answer is neither! It is high time that such excuses are not offered because they are entirely invalidated by data. Of the ten countries listed here around six countries exhibit an incidence of AIDS which is below the SSA average and only two -Zimbabwe and Central African Republic - exceed the average figure significantly. Moreover, there are many SSA countries with AIDS incidence well above the average which are showing positive growth rates.

Thus, for human beings as well as countries there is life after AIDS. Ditto for malaria! In fact if we look at the countries for which malaria data are available out of those listed here, none have an eyeball popping incidence of malaria; it ranges from 6 to 24 cases per 1000 people per annum as opposed to growing Uganda or Sao Tome with an excess of 400 cases per 1000 people. Clearly, policy makers who want to rouse these economies into positive growth have to look elsewhere for diseases afflicting these countries.

Siddhartha Mitra, Director (Research), CUTS (June 18, 2008)

Tags: Developmental Issues //